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College Football: Top 5 Overachieving and Top 5 Underachieving Teams for 2011.

Once again, the BCS has declared its final, pre-bowl rankings of the best 25 teams in college football.  Fans always dispute the standings by arguing that many of the voters are ill-informed or biased.  But the BCS ranking and the Associated Press poll establish the official pecking order.  So, how much of winning is recruiting the best high school players (according to the experts)?  How much is coaching, avoiding injuries, and luck?  This post reviews the recruiting classes from 2007-2011, so you can compare to the final standings.  Then, I list my top five overachieving and underachieving teams for 2011.

Each year ESPN publishes a list of the top 25 college recruiting classes.  Colleges recruited most of today’s players in 2007-2010.  Some 2011 recruits also saw action. We, at BizzyLife sports, looked at the ESPN class rankings and assigned points: 25 points for the #1 school and 1 point for the #25 school.  The 2007-2010 point totals follow:

Rank

Team

Cumulative Points 2007-2010

1 Florida

92

2 Texas

86

3 USC

85

4 Alabama

79

5 LSU

78

6 Miami

74

7 Georgia

68

8 Michigan

57

9 Oklahoma

54

10 Florida State

53

Ohio State

53

12 Notre Dame

52

13 Tennessee

49

14 Clemson

46

15 S. Carolina

39

16 UCLA

37

17 N. Carolina

30

Virginia Tech

30

18 Auburn

29

19 Illinois

24

20 Penn State

20

Texas A & M

20

22 Arkansas

14

23 Georgia Tech

12

Pittsburg

12

25 Arizona State

9

(Others with points 2007-2010: 9: Arizona State; 8: Nebraska, Stanford; 7: Oregon; 6; NC State; 5: Rutgers, Ole Miss, 3; Minnesota, Miss. State; 2: Iowa, South Fla., Colo.)

When we add the 2011 recruiting class, the ranking changes a bit, as follows:

Rank

Team

2007-2011

1 Texas

107

USC

107

3 Florida

106

4 Alabama

103

5 LSU

94

6 Georgia

88

7 Florida State

78

8 Miami

74

9 Ohio State

71

10 Notre Dame

69

Oklahoma

69

12 Clemson

64

13 Tennessee

62

14 Michigan

57

15 Auburn

52

16 S. Carolina

50

17 N. Carolina

40

18 UCLA

37

19 Virginia Tech

32

20 Illinois

24

21 Arkansas

21

22 Penn State

20

Texas A & M

20

24 Oregon

19

25 Nebraska

17

(Others with points 2007-2011: 13: Stanford; 12: Georgia Tech; 9: Arizona State; 8: California; 7: Arkansas; 6: Virginia, Ole Miss; 5: Rutgers; 4: Louisville; 3; Minnesota, Miss. State Oklahoma State; 2: Colorado, Iowa, South Fla., Washington)

When we compare recruit ranking to poll results, we can identify the top 5 overachieving teams and the top five underachievers.

Overachievers:

Team Recruit Strength BCS Rank AP
Oklahoma State Not ranked; 3 points  3 3
Boise State Not Ranked; 0 points  7 8
Kansas State Not Ranked; 0 points  8 11
Wisconsin Not Ranked; 0 points  10 9
Stanford Not Ranked; 13 Points  4 4

Many teams underachieved.  One way to rank the teams that did the least with the most would have been to look at won-lost records. I took the easier route.  Here are teams with the recruiting classes in the top 10 who ended the season unranked.

Team

Recruit Strength 2007-10 |  2007-11

BCS Rank

AP Poll

 

Florida

1  |  3

Not Ranked Not Ranked
Miami

6  |  8

Not Ranked Not Ranked
Florida State

10 |  7

Not Ranked Not Ranked
Ohio State

10 |  9

Not Ranked Not Ranked
Notre Dame

12 | 10

Not Ranked Not Ranked

So, the booby prize goes to . . . . Florida.  And Coach of the Year should go to Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State.

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One Response to College Football: Top 5 Overachieving and Top 5 Underachieving Teams for 2011.

  1. Mike Wilcox says:

    Loved this and who could argue with the method? Plus I agree with the Coach of the Year suggestion.

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